[SMM comment] Nickel in Shanghai rose nearly 1.8%. Non-ferrous metals are basically red, black, red, fat, green, thin, crude oil reddish.

SMM, December 4: today's morning non-ferrous metals market basically floating red, as of 09:45, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai zinc weak green.

In terms of nickel, it was reported yesterday that Indonesia had raised the right to use tax on nickel ore sales from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, according to the SMM. If Indonesian nickel mines are sold in circulation on the market, the cost will include not only mining costs, but also taxes and transportation costs. The tax and fee involved in this adjustment is one of the more important taxes and fees levied by the government on the mine, which is the "mine concession fee" (royalty). Operators speculate that the tax rate will be adjusted for the purpose of driving up the domestic trade price of Indonesia's nickel mines. Separately, nickel inventories at LME warehouses soared yesterday, highlighting hidden overinventories. Overnight Shanghai nickel closed in the small balcony, below 105000 yuan / ton first line temporarily supported, K column as a whole closed below the 10-day moving average, pressure shock, today pay attention to Shanghai nickel in the 10-day moving average near 107000 yuan / ton barrier shock.

Lead, lead prices show signs of stabilizing, follow-up attention to the primary regeneration spread and inventory changes. Consumption is still relatively flat, but the car into the peak consumption season is looking forward to, the transaction atmosphere has improved.

On the zinc front, the Bureau of Statistics released November economic data yesterday, PPI fell less than expected and the previous value, reflecting the continued resilience of infrastructure and real estate, the short-term demand side has improved. Social inventories in the seven places continued to decline, coupled with the easing of the trade war, zinc prices continued to rebound.

In the black system, stainless steel rose nearly 1.3%, hot coil rose nearly 0.9%, thread rose nearly 0.4%, coking coal rose nearly 0.1%, coke and iron ore fell nearly 0.5%. In terms of coke, Shandong issued documents related to coking capacity, and the policy is expected to become stronger, but the national operating rate and Nissan have not yet declined significantly in the near future. On the demand side, with the recovery of downstream production, rigid consumption has increased and the willingness to press prices has weakened, but at present, the second round of price increases has not been accepted; port transactions and mentality have warmed up, inventories have been kept demineralized, and the disk surface has been boosted by macroscopic. pay attention to the actual reduction in supply in the near future. In the aspect of coking coal, the safety inspection of frequent mine accidents has been strengthened, and most of the coal mines in Shanxi are facing suspension of production and seasonal contraction of domestic coal supply; at the demand end, the coke price has maintained a certain profit after the rise in coke price, and the coal price has temporarily stabilized, but because the total inventory level is on the high side, kinetic energy is insufficient, or follow coke in the short term.

In the early hours of Wednesday, Beijing time, (API) released data showing that API crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 1.41 million barrels, expected to decrease by 3.05 million barrels, gasoline stocks increased by 4.9 million barrels, and refined oil stocks increased by 3.2 million barrels. After the release of the data, American oil fell rapidly in the short term, closing at $59.09 / barrel, an increase of 0.17%.

As of 09:45, HKEx had added US dollar-denominated small metal contracts:

Technical analysis:

Copper: copper prices fluctuated at high levels in the internal and external markets last night, mainly due to the gradual digestion of early US data and economic and trade-related benefits, and nearing the key node of the trade situation on December 15, and the market continued to struggle with high copper prices. Last night's December ZEW sentiment index for the eurozone and Germany was significantly higher than previous values, and China's November social finance scale was also better than expected, but the macro market is still focused on the Fed's interest rate decision and the progress of the trade situation. Copper prices need to be guided by both. On the crude oil side, API data depressed oil prices, while US oil fell back from high levels, putting upward pressure on copper prices. On the spot side, due to the current high disk price stabilized, the market high price willingness to take goods is low, leading to the willingness of holders to sell goods has been enhanced, yesterday there has been a discount phenomenon, it is expected that the discount state has been maintained today, but there is little room for continuous decline. It is estimated that today's copper 6050-6100 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 48500-48800 yuan / ton, spot discount 10-liter 40 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: recently, although the cost continues to decline, but the intensity of consumption does not reduce to give the market strong confidence, domestic aluminum bar and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes in the basic face of Shanghai aluminum trend. It is expected that the intra-day shock will run at 1386014000 yuan / ton, and the spot will rise 30-50 yuan / ton that month. Within the day, it is expected that the Shanghai aluminum main concussion will run at 13860-14000 yuan / ton, and the spot will rise 3050 yuan / ton that month. Recent rising water from the early high fall but Shanghai aluminum recent trend is on the strong side, it is suggested that the lower reaches of the high can wait and see, mainly on-demand procurement.

Lead: overnight, Shanghai lead 2001 contract opened at 15120 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead shock upward, high once reached 15185 yuan / ton, then fell back under pressure, and finally reported at 15180 yuan / ton, up 0.46%. Shanghai lead low rose, closed at 5 Lianyang, but the overall increase is limited, and there is no signal of price reversal upward.

Zinc: overnight zinc recorded a small negative line, the upper 5 / 10 line into suppression, the lower Brin Road under the rail support, the price is close to the low before. Lme zinc stocks fell 0.6 per cent, the Fed will announce an interest rate resolution on Thursday, expected to remain unchanged, the market is pessimistic about the future, prices are expected to operate in the $2200-2250 / tonne range. Overnight Shanghai zinc jump low open recorded small yang line, the bottom 5 / 10 line to provide important support, above or continue to test the 20th line suppression strength, MACD index line into a golden fork. Yesterday, all over the world continued to lower spot water, market volume continued to release, the recent die-casting plate orders slightly weaker superimposed galvanized plate affected by environmental protection production restrictions, the price is expected to run in the range of 17700-18100 yuan / ton. Domestic double swallow zinc to 12 contract water 140-180 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni closed in the lower shadow line small positive line, the shadow line through the ten thousand three levels down 12900 US dollars / ton, the k column as a whole stands above the 5-day moving average, the upper 10-day moving average faces resistance, pay attention to the pressure near the 10-day moving average above Lunni today. Overnight Shanghai nickel closed in the small balcony, below 105000 yuan / ton first line temporarily supported, K column as a whole closed below the 10-day moving average, pressure shock, today pay attention to Shanghai nickel in the 10-day moving average near 107000 yuan / ton barrier shock.

Tin: the resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near the triangular horizontal plate finishing point of $17700 / ton. It is expected that the resistance above tin in Shanghai is around 142000 yuan / ton. In the short term, we will pay attention to whether tin in Shanghai can effectively break through the resistance level near 142000 yuan / ton and continue to rise steadily. If we can effectively break through, the next resistance will be near the starting point of 145000 yuan / ton in the whole triangle range in the early stage. Spot market, Shanghai tin main 2001 contract continued to rise last night, is expected to today's mainstream transaction price of 140000142500 yuan / ton.

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